Partial signal coverage
73%
Forecast confidence
Codex Reset Radar
- Expected window
- Jul 26 — Jul 29
- Signal basis
- Major news
Jul 25Latest reset
Jul 27Forecast center
Jul 29Window end
Why this window
No unexpired direct Tibo hint is active. A major AI event raises the odds over the next few days: “Kimi K3 Launch Triggers Nasdaq Drop, 2.8T Params [2026] - tech-insider.org”
tech-insider.org02
Evidence radar
Live signals and verified history behind the reset window.
Live·Jul 265 signals · active method: Major news · 73% confidence
Elevated errors affecting ChatGPT conversations · monitoringRecent operational incidents have historically increased make-good reset odds.Raises oddsElevated error rates · resolvedRecent operational incidents have historically increased make-good reset odds.Raises oddsElevated error rates · resolvedRecent operational incidents have historically increased make-good reset odds.Raises oddsElevated Errors in Codex Review · resolvedRecent operational incidents have historically increased make-good reset odds.Raises oddsOpenAI's new release turns a bad week ugly for software stocks - Business InsiderRelevant context, but not a direct reset trigger.No change
Radar lensWindow pressureEarlierCurrent center: 2.0 days after the latest verified reset
Public feed·Jul 267 signals · active method: Major news · 73% confidence
Tibo on XLast verified source snapshotShould we rename ChatGPT Work to ChatGPT Vibe?Relevant context, but not a direct reset trigger.Jul 24, 2:40 AMNo changeTibo on XLast verified source snapshotShow me your pet OpenAI Developers @OpenAIDevs 6h Your Pet is ready to meet other builders. On ChatGPT web, create a shareable link for your custom pet and send it to a friend to adopt. Video 3 00:17Relevant context, but not a direct reset trigger.Jul 24, 4:45 PMNo changeTibo on XLive public feedWe have reset usage limits for all Codex and ChatGPT Work users.
Last night around 2am to 4am we suffered an almost global outage. All well and recovered, but you know what comes next.
We learn. We reset. Enjoy.Explicit reset language was detected: this is counted as a verified reset and restarts the forecast interval.Jul 25, 3:17 PMVerified resetTibo on XLive public feedChatGPT Work officially has overtaken Codex in number of active users. Way to go.Relevant context, but not a direct reset trigger.Jul 25, 10:03 PMNo changeTibo on XLive public feedGame changer when used from mobile. Available in the ChatGPT app already.Relevant context, but not a direct reset trigger.Jul 26, 12:04 AMNo changeTibo on XLive public feedIt was always possible to speak to your computer. It wouldn’t do much in return. But we fixed that bug.Relevant context, but not a direct reset trigger.Jul 26, 1:43 AMNo changeTibo on XLive public feedLet ChatGPT *work* for you. How many time have you wanted to negotiate your internet bill, get rid of all those spam emails you’re subscribed to, or find the perfect deal for something you wanted to do or buy. It’s quite literally just one prompt away, all from the comfort ofRelevant context, but not a direct reset trigger.Jul 26, 2:21 PMNo change
Model outcomeSignals point earlierBased on the current evidence stream
Verified·Jul 267 signals · active method: Major news · 73% confidence
- Jul 25, 3:17 PMWe have reset usage limits for all Codex and ChatGPT Work users. Last night around 2am to 4am we suffered an almost global outage. All well and recovered, but…4.1 days since prior resetThis verified event created a 4.1-day interval used by the cadence model.
- Jul 21, 12:47 PM10M! New day, new usage reset for paid users of Codex and ChatGPT Work. Lands in the next hour. Enjoy.3.6 days since prior resetThis verified event created a 3.6-day interval used by the cadence model.
- Jul 17, 11:28 PMAnother paid-plan refill3.3 days since prior resetThis verified event created a 3.3-day interval used by the cadence model.
- Jul 14, 3:34 PMEight million active users1.0 days since prior resetThis verified event created a 1.0-day interval used by the cadence model.
- Jul 13, 2:29 PMSeven million active users and a banked refill3.5 days since prior resetThis verified event created a 3.5-day interval used by the cadence model.
- Jul 10, 1:30 AMThe GPT-5.6 Sol launch, twice over twenty-four hours0.3 days since prior resetThis verified event created a 0.3-day interval used by the cadence model.
- Jul 9, 5:24 PMA new researcher got credit for pressing the button10.9 days since prior resetThis verified event created a 10.9-day interval used by the cadence model.